To Reinvent Oneself :: College Admissions, Personal Narrative

Before I go about fixing the world, I must first try a little self-improvement. Many people walk through life without really considering who they are and fewer still ask themselves if that is who they want to be. In my experience this is because most folks can't see how to go about changing themselves and some even think that this is somehow a betrayal of their essence. To reinvent yourself you need three things. A vision of who you want to be. You need to know how to make a change in yourself and finally you need to have the courage to do it. Your vision can be reached through many paths. Look at those things that you take pride in about yourself and contrast them with those things that embarrass you. This should start to indicate where your soul is trying to head. Next flesh out the ultimate form that you would take if you followed this path. And now you have your vision. But don't think this will remain constant throughout your life. As you change, grow and learn you will want to alter your vision. This is a good and normal thing, so fear not. The method that I have found to change myself is simplicity itself. Become an actor. Take one part of yourself at a time and start acting as if you had already achieved that modification. It will feel awkward and false at first but the more you practice it, including the feelings behind the actions, the more it will become natural to you. Eventually you will be acting correctly without even thinking about it and your motivation will become a part of who you are. Then you are ready to tackle the next part of yourself that needs improvement. You will need courage to do this. Remember, all of your friends and family are expecting you to stay the same. Whether you know it or not you are partly who you are because of a desire to meet these expectations. It is therefore natural for you to fear the confusion and perhaps rejection of those nearest and dearest to you.

Employment At Will Doctrine Essay

†¢Summarize the employment-at-will doctrine and evaluate each of the eight (8) scenarios described by determining: The employment-at-will doctrine states that an employee can be fired or released from a company for cause or no cause at all. The employee also has the right to quit a job for any reason. Under this legislation, neither the employer or employee incurs â€Å"adverse legal consequences† (NCSL, 2014). There are three exceptions that are observed by the law to include a dismissal that â€Å"violates a state’s public policy, where there is an implied contract for employment, or where there is an implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing† (Muhl, 2001, p4). People cannot be fired based on the â€Å"individual’s race, color, religion, sex, or national origin† (Halbert & Ingulli, 2012, p134). An individual can also not be fired based on a disability or due to filing a workman’s comp claim. Imagine you are a recently-hired Chief Operating Officer (COO) in a midsize company preparing for an Initial Public Offering (IPO). You quickly discover multiple personnel problems that require your immediate attention. As an astute manager, you will need to analyze the employment-at-will doctrine and determine what, if any, exceptions and liabilities exist before taking any action. oWhether you can legally fire the employee; include an assessment of any pertinent exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine. oWhat action you should take to limit liability and impact on operations; specify which ethical theory best supports your decision. †¢John posted a rant on his Facebook page in which he criticized the company’s most important customer. John’s actions took place on his own time, and the information was posted on his personal site. The action from the company would depend on whether John made the post and none of his coworkers chimed in or agreed with him, or if someone did agree with him. Concerted activity is protected under the law but not grunts and groaning from one employee. According to Eidelson (2012), â€Å"concerted activity will take different forms for different workers†. Quite simply put, John’s post could cause a loss of business for the company or even a disgruntled customer, not to mention the company’s most important customer. The company would be protected in firing him. I made this decision based on the Ethics  of Care. John made a comment about our most important customer, and it is the company’s business to make sure the customer continues to be our most important customer. †¢Jim sent an email to other salespeople protesting a change in commission schedules and bonuses and suggesting everyone boycott the next sales meeting. Jim’s case is interesting. The answer to firing him is it depends. If Jim is disgruntled and just decided to send out an email to all of his coworkers to get them roweled up, then he could be fired legally. However, if he had been talking to other employees and then sent them an email to further talk about actions to take, he would be protected under the law as â€Å"protected concerted activity† (Eidelson, 2012). Also, the judge may look at Jim’s case to see if he talked with any of the upper management about concerns before trying to get others to boycott. The judge would check to see if Jim was part of a union as well. In one case where an employee sent an email, the judge ruled that her firing was legal, because her email â€Å"merely expressed an individual gripe rather than any shared concerns about w orking conditions† (Newby, 2013). Since this description did not say that other employees joined in with Jim, the judge would rule that his firing was legal. After firing Jim, I would call a meeting with the rest of the employees to make sure that Jim’s attitude towards the company had not spread to others and to try to find some solutions if it had. I made this decision based on the Virtue Ethics model. †¢Ellen started a blog to protest the CEO’s bonus, noting that no one below director has gotten a raise in two (2) years and portraying her bosses as â€Å"know-nothings† and â€Å"out-of-touch†. Ellen started a blog to protest the CEO’s bonus. The employer would need to make sure that Ellen’s post had not been commented on by other employees who were in agreement with her. The company should also look to its’ social media policy if it has one. The employer could be covered if the policy states that employees cannot speak derogatorily about their boss or coworkers online. The â€Å"National Labor Relations Act states that workers have the right to discuss their wages and conditions of employment†; however, â€Å"griping or ranting by a single employee is not protected† (Rogers, 2013). Ellen stepped across the line by criticizing the CEO of the company and calling him names. This could cause a rift in the company and lower morale. The company would be justified in firing Ellen. I would do this based on Deontology which focuses on rights and duties,  telling the truth and fairness (Halbert & Ingulli, 2012, p17). †¢Bill has been using his company-issued BlackBerry to run his own business on the side. Bill was given the company-issued BlackBerry to use for work. As I read in most articles, it is expected that in this digital age employees will use their employers’ equipment for some type of personal use. Most companies have policies on the use of company equipment. If Bill is a good employee, there is no loss of productivity, a nd the majority of his personal business is taking place during off-time, Bill should not be fired, and it would not be deemed legal, unless the company’s policy says something different. The company’s policy should be â€Å"clearly communicated to all employees and† and be â€Å"consistently enforced† as well (BizFilings, 2012). Bill should be aware that the employer †generally can monitor, listen in and record employee phone calls on employer owned phones† to include â€Å"voice mail and text messages† (Bussing, 2011). So if his employer found that he was exchanging insider information about the company through the company BlackBerry, they would be justified in firing him. I chose this course of action based on Virtue Ethics. If Bill feels his employer trusts him, he will most likely remain trustworthy and honest to the company. †¢The secretaries in the accounting department decided to dress in black-and-white stripes to protest a memo announcing that the company has installed keylogger software on all company computers. The secretaries could not be legally fired in this instance. The secretaries would also be covered under the National Labor Relations Act. They are silently protesting the keylogger software. There is more than one person involved in this silent protest and they have the right to discuss â€Å"conditions of employment† (Rogers, 2013). I chose this based on the Ethics of Care. The secretaries obviously do not agree with a new procedure in the workplace. The upper management should not come down on them for that. The secretaries are quietly organizing themselves, and they should have the right to disagree. †¢After being disciplined for criticizing a customer in an email (sent from his personal email account on a company computer), Joe threatens to sue the company for invasion of privacy. Company computers are company computers. The company has the right to information that is sent on its’ computers, especially during work hours. Joe should not be discussing work business through his personal emails. Joe would not be covered under the First  Amendment, because it â€Å"protects all of us from the government, not from private companies† (NOLO, 2014). I chose this action based on Free Market Ethics. This model focuses on what is good for the company. Joe cannot stay with the company while criticizing the customers, especially through his personal email at work. If the company keeps Joe around and the information gets out, it could lose more than it would by letting him go. †¢One of the department supervisors requests your approval to fire his secretary for insubordination. Since the secretary has always received glowing reviews, you call her into your office and determine that she has refused to prepare false expense reports for her boss. The secretary’s firing would not be justified in this situation. Although the secretary is an employee at will who could be fired for cause or no reason at all, it appears that the secretary is being retaliated against for refusing to prepare corrupt documents. The secretary’s reviews have always been great, so there is no presence of a developmental plan or previous violations of company policy. The company most likely has some type of policy for progressive discipline, so if the supervisor did not follow the plan to the letter, the firing would not be justified. I chose this action based on Deontology. The employer has the obligation to be honest and to remain steadfast â€Å"to universal princip les† (Halbert & Ingulli, 2012, p17). †¢Anna’s boss refused to sign her leave request for jury duty and now wants to fire her for being absent without permission. Anna’s boss could not legally fire her due to serving jury duty. â€Å"Most states prohibit employers from firing or disciplining employees called to serve on a juryâ€Å" and some states â€Å"prohibit employers from trying to discourage or intimidate employees from serving† (NOLO, 2014). Anna’s boss could be â€Å"held in contempt of court† if Anna did not show up to court because of her employer’s decision (Gordon, 2012). I chose this action based on Utilitarianism, because the choice of firing Anna due to attending jury duty may have a detrimental effect on the entire workplace. As you proceed with your investigation, you discover the company has no whistleblower policy. †¢Take a position on whether or not you would recommend to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) that the company adopt a whistleblower policy. Support the position. I would recommend to the CEO that the company adopt a whistleblower policy. It is important to have such a policy so that people know the proper steps to take when disclosing  information of wrongdoing in the workplace and know that they will be protected for sharing such information. In the situation between the supervisor and his secretary, a whistleblowing policy could have exposed the issue earlier. It seemed that the secretary did not tell anyone about the supervisor pressuring her to create false documents, until she was faced with losing her job. †¢Justify at least three (3) fundamental items that should be included in a whistleblower policy. Provide a rationale for your selection of each of the three (3) recommended items. The first item that should be included in a whistleblower policy is the â€Å"responsibility to disclose that information to appropriate parties inside the organization† (Barnett, 1992). The employees are the ones who are going to see the wrongdoing most likely. Without laying the responsibility on the employees, they may not know how important it is to the company and may not feel supported in their efforts to share information. This part of the policy should also include that the process will take place within the organization and that all information given should be done so â€Å"in good faith† (Barnett, 1992). The second item that should be included in a whistleblowing policy is a group of neutral people â€Å"outside the chain of command as complaint recipients† (Barnett, 199 2). This should make people feel more comfortable sharing violations, because they don’t have to worry about backlash from sharing information. It would make it much harder for an employee to disclose information to the group if he knew the person he was telling on was best friends with someone on the committee. Finally, the policy should outline the steps of the investigation process and give assurance to the whistleblower that there will be no â€Å"adverse employment consequences† (Barnett, 1992). The Whistleblower Acts should also be included in the employee handbook so that employees not only understand the policy within their current workplace, but as it is stated by the government. The employee will know what is covered and what is not. References Barnett, T. (1992). Why Your Company Should Have a Whistleblowing Policy.Retrieved May 4th, 2014, from http://ethics.csc.ncsu.edu /old/12_00/basics/whistle/rst/wstlblo_policy.html BizFilings. (2012). Using Policies to Address Employees’ Personal Use of BusinessEquipment. Retrieved May 4th, 2014, from

Simulation Profit Model - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 8 Words: 2302 Downloads: 2 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Chapter 15 Simulation Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Simulation Profit Model" essay for you Create order Learning Objectives 1.Understand what simulation is and how it aids in the analysis of a problem. 2.Learn why simulation is a significant problem-solving tool. 3.Understand the difference between static and dynamic simulation. 4.Identify the important role probability distributions, random numbers, and the computer play in implementing simulation models. 5.Realize the relative advantages and disadvantages of simulation models. 6.Understand the following terms: simulationMonte Carlo simulation simulation modeldiscrete-event simulation Solutions: 1.a.Profit=(249 c1 c2 ) x 1,000,000 =(249 45 90) (20,000) 1,000,000 =$1,280,000 (Engineers) b.Profit=(249 45 100) (10,000) 1,000,000 =$40,000 (Financial Analyst) c.Simulation will provide probability information about the various profit levels possible. What if scenarios show possible profit outcomes but do not provide probability information. 2.a.Letc=variable cost per unit x=demand Profit=50x cx 30,000 =(50 c) x 30,000 b.Base case:Profit=(50 20) 1200 30,000 = 6,000 Worst case:Profit=(50 24) 300 30,000 = -22,200 Best case:Profit=(50 16) 2100 30,000 = 41,400 c.The possibility of a $41,400 profit is interesting, but the worst case loss of $22,200 is risky. Risk analysis would be helpful in evaluating the probability of a loss. 3. Random Number Direct Labor Cost 0.3753 $45 0.9218 $47 0.0336 $43 0.5145 $45 0.7000 $46 4.a. Sales Interval 0 .00 but less than .08 1 .08 but less than .20 2 .20 but less than .48 3 .48 but less than .72 4 .72 but less than .86 5 .86 but less than .96 6 .96 but less than 1.00 b.2, 5, 2, 3, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1, 2 c.Total Sales = 24 units 5.a. Stock Price Change Probability Interval -2 .05 .00 but less than .05 -1 .10 .05 but less than .15 0 .25 .15 but less than .40 +1 .20 .40 but less than .60 +2 .20 .60 but less than .80 +3 .10 .80 but less than .90 +4 .10 .90 but less than 1.00 b. Random Number Price Change Ending Price Per Share 0.1091 -1 $38 0.9407 +4 $42 0.1941 0 $42 0.8083 +3 $45 Ending price per share = $45 6.a. Number of New Accounts Opened Probability Interval of Random Numbers 0 .01 .00 but less than .01 1 .04 .01 but less than .05 2 .10 .05 but less than .15 3 .25 .15 but less than .40 4 .40 .40 but less than .80 5 .15 .80 but less than .95 6 .05 .95 but less than 1.00 b. Trial Random Number Number of New Accounts Opened 1 0.7169 4 2 0.2186 3 3 0.2871 3 4 0.9155 5 5 0.1167 2 6 0.9800 6 7 0.5029 4 8 0.4154 4 9 0.7872 4 10 0.0702 2 c.For the 10 trials Gustin opened 37 new accounts. With an average first year commission of $5000 per account, the total first year commission is $185,000. The cost to run the 10 seminars is $35,000, so the net contribution to profit for Gustin is $150,000 or $15,000 per seminar. Because the seminars are a very profitable way of generating new business, Gustin should continue running the seminars. 7.Time=a + r (b a ) =10 + r (18 10) =10 + 8r r Time 0.1567 11.25 minutes 0.9823 17.86 minutes 0.3419 12.74 minutes 0.5572 14.46 minutes 0.7758 16.21 minutes 8.a.The following table can be used to simulate a win for Atlanta Game Interval for Atlanta Win 1 .00 but less than .60 2 .00 but less than .55 3 .00 but less than .48 4 .00 but less than .45 5 .00 but less than .48 6 .00 but less than .55 7 .00 but less than .50 b.Using the random numbers in column 6 beginning with 0.3813, 0.2159 and so on, Atlanta wins games 1 and 2, loses game 3, wins game 4, loses game 5 and wins game 6. Thus, Atlanta wins the 6-game World Series 4 games to 2 games. c.Repeat the simulation many times. In each case, record who wins the series and the number of games played, 4, 5, 6 or 7. Count the number of times Atlanta wins. Divide this number by the total number of simulation runs to estimate the probability that Atlanta will win the World Series. Count the number of times the series ends in 4 games and divide this number by the total number of simulation runs to estimate the probability of the World Series ending in 4 games. This can be repeated for 5-game, 6-game and 7-game series. 9.a.Base case using most likely completion times. A 6 B 5 C 14 D 8 33 weeks Worst case:8 + 7 + 18 + 10 = 43 weeks Best case:5 + 3 + 10 + 8 = 26 weeks b. Activity Random Number Completion Time A 0.1778 5 B 0.9617 7 C 0.6849 14 D 0.4503 8 Total: 34 Weeks c.Simulation will provide a distribution of project completion time values. Calculating the percentage of simulation trials with completion times of 35 weeks or less can be used to estimate the probability of meeting the completion time target of 35 weeks. 10.a. Hand Value Probability Interval 17 .1654 .0000 but less than .1654 18 .1063 .1654 but less than .2717 19 .1063 .2717 but less than .3780 20 .1017 .3780 but less than .4797 21 .0972 .4797 but less than .5769 Broke .4231 .5769 but less than 1.000 b/c. Hand Dealer Value Player Value Hand Dealer Value Player Value 1 Broke Broke 11 21 17 2 18 Broke 12 Broke Broke 3 21 17 13 17 Broke 4 17 Broke 14 Broke 20 5 21 21 15 18 20 6 17 17 16 Broke 18 7 18 17 17 19 Broke 8 18 Broke 18 Broke 20 9 Broke 17 19 20 Broke 10 Broke Broke 20 21 Broke d.Dealer wins 13: 1-4, 7, 8, 10-13, 17, 19, 20 Pushes = 2: 5, 6 Player wins 5: 9, 14, 15, 16, 18 At a bet of $10 per hand, the player loses $80. e.Player wins 7: 1, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 At a bet of $10 per hand, the player loses $60. On the basis of these results, we would not recommend the player take a hit on 16 when the dealer is showing a 6. 11.a.Letr=random number a=smallest value = -8 b=largest value = 12 Return % = a + r(b a) = -8 + r(12-(-8)) = -8 + r20 1st Quarterr = .52 Return % = -8 + .52(20) = 2.4% For all quarters: Quarter r Return % 1 0.52 2.4% 2 0.99 11.8% 3 0.12 -5.6% 4 0.15 -5.0% 5 0.50 2.0% 6 0.77 7.4% 7 0.40 0.0% 8 0.52 2.4% b.For each quarter, Ending price = Beginning price + Change For Quarter 1: Ending price=$80.00 + .024($80.00) =$80.00 + $1.92 = $81.92 For Quarter 2:Ending price=$81.92 + .118($81.92) =$81.92 + $9.67 = $91.59 Quarter Starting Price/Share Return % Change $ Ending Price/Share 1 $80.00 2.4% $1.92 $81.92 2 $81.92 11.8% $9.67 $91.59 3 $91.59 -5.6% -$5.13 $86.46 4 $86.46 -5.0% -$4.32 $82.13 5 $82.13 2.0% $1.64 $83.78 6 $83.78 7.4% $6.20 $89.98 7 $89.98 0.0% $0.00 $89.98 8 $89.98 2.4% $2.16 $92.14 Price per share at the end of two years = $92.14 c.Conducting a risk analysis would require multiple simulations of the eight-quarter, two-year period. For each simulation, the price per share at the end of two years would be recorded. The distribution of the ending price per share values would provide an indication of the maximum possible gain, the maximum possible loss and other possibilities in between. 12.a.Profit = Selling Price Purchase Cost Labor Cost Transportation Cost Base Case using most likely costs Profit=45 11 24 3 = $7/unit Worst Case Profit= 45 12 25 5 = $3/unit Best Case Profit=45 10 20 3 = $12/unit b. Purchase Cost Interval Labor Cost Interval Transportation Cost Interval $10 .00 but less than .25 $20 .00 but less than .10 $3 .00 but less than .75 11 .25 but less than .70 22 .10 but less than .35 5 .75 but less than 1.00 12 .70 but less than 1.00 24 .35 but less than .70 25 .70 but less than 1.00 c.Profit=45 11 24 5 = $5/unit d.Profit=45 10 25 3 = $7/unit e.Simulation will provide a distribution of the profit per unit values. Calculating the percentage of simulation trials providing a profit less than $5 per unit would provide an estimate of the probability the profit per unit will be unacceptably low. 13.Use the PortaCom spreadsheet. Simulation results will vary, but a mean profit of approximately $710,000 with a probability of a loss in the 0.07 to 0.10 range can be anticipated. 14.The Excel worksheet for this problem is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B13=$C$7+RAND()*($C$8-$C$7) C13=NORMINV(RAND(),$G$7,$G$8) D13=($C$3-B13)*C13-$C$4 a.The mean profit should be approximately $6,000. Simulation results will vary with most simulations having a mean profit between $5,500 and $6,500. b.120 to 150 of the 500 simulation trails should show a loss. Thus, the probability of a loss should be between 0.24 and 0.30. c.This project appears too risky. The relatively high probability of a loss and only roughly $6,000 as a mean profit indicate that the potential gain is not worth the risk of a loss. More precise estimates of the variable cost per unit and the demand could help determine a more precise profit estimate. 15.The Excel worksheet for this problem is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B15=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$A$6:$C$11,3) C15=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$A$6:$C$11,3) D15=B15+C15 H15=COUNTIF(D15:D1014,7) H16=H15/COUNT(D15:D1014) Simulation results will vary with most simulations showing between 155 and 180 7s. The probability of a 7 should be approximately 0.1667. 16.Target Answers: a.Simulation runs will vary. Generally, 340 to 380, or roughly 36% of the simulation runs will show $130,000 to be the highest and winning bid. b.$150,000. Profit = $160,000 = $150,000 = $10,000 c.Again, simulation results will vary. Simulation results should be consistent with the following: Amount Bid Win the Bid Profit per Win Average Profit $130,000 340 to 380 times $30,000 Approx. $10,800 $140,000 620 to 660 times $20,000 Approx. $12,800 $150,000 1000 times $10,000 $10,000 Using an average profit criterion, both the $130,000 and $140,000 bids are preferred to the $150,000 bid. Of the three alternatives, $140,000 is the recommended bid. 17.The Excel worksheet for this problem is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B9=NORMINV(RAND(),$C$4,$C$5) F10=COUNTIF(B9:B508,40000) a.Most simulations will provide between 105 and 130 tires exceeding 40,000 miles. The percentage should be roughly 24%. b. Mileage In Most Simulations Number of Tires Approximate Percentage 32,000 80 to 100 18% 30,000 42 to 55 10% 28,000 18 to 30 4% c.Of mileages considered, 30,000 miles should come closest to meeting the tire guarantee mileage guideline. 18.The Excel worksheet with data in thousands of dollars is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B11=$C$4+RAND()*($C$5-$C$4) C11=NORMINV(RAND(),$H$4,$H$5) D11=MAX(B11:C11) G11=COUNTIF(D11:D1010,750) H11=G11/COUNT(D11:D1010) a.Cell G11 provides the number of times the contractors bid of $750,000 will beat the highest competitive bid shown in column D. Simulation results will vary but the bid of $750,000 should win roughly 600 to 650 of the 1000 times. The probability of winning the bid should be between 0.60 and 0.65. b.Cells G12 and G13 provide the number of times the bids of $775,000 and $785,000 win. Again, simulation results vary but the probability of $750,000 winning should be roughly 0.82 and the probability of $785,000 winning should be roughly 0.88. Given these results, a contractors bid of $775,000 is recommended. 19.Butler Inventory simulation spreadsheet. The shortage cost has been eliminated so $0 can be entered in cell C5. Trial replenishment levels of 110, 115, 120 and 125 can be entered in cell C7. Since the shortage cost has been eliminated, Butler can be expected to reduce the replenishment level. This will allow more shortages. However, since the cost of a stockout is only the lost profit and not the lost profit plus a goodwill shortage cost, Butler can permit more shortages and still show an improvement in profit. A replenishment level of 115 should provide a mean profit of approximately $4600. The replenishment levels of 110, 115 and 120 all provide near optimal results. 20.The Excel worksheet for this problem is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B14=NORMINV(RAND(),$H$4,$H$5) C14=IF(B14$D$8,B14,$D$8) D14=$D$5*C14 E14=IF(C14$D$8,($D$8-C14),0) F14=$D$6*E14 G14=$D$3+$D$4*$D$8 H14=D14+F14-G14 The number of stockouts can be computed by using the cell formula =COUNTIF(E14:E513,=0) a.The simulated mean profit with a production quantity of 60,000 units should be in the $170,000 to $210,000 range. The probability of a stockout is about 0.50. b.The conservative 50,000 unit production quantity is recommended with a simulated mean profit of approximately $230,000. The more aggressive 70,000 unit production quantity should show a simulated mean profit less than $100,000. c.When a 50,000 unit production quantity is used, the probability of a stockout should be approximately 0.75. This is a relative high probability indicating that Mandrell has a good chance of being able to sell all the dolls it produces for the holiday season. As a result, a shortage of dolls is likely to occur. However, this production strategy will enable the company to avoid the high cost associated with selling excess dolls for a loss after the first of the year. 21.The Excel worksheet for this problem is as follows: Selected cell formulas are as follows: CellFormula B16=VLOOKUP(RAND(),$A$6:$C$10,3) C16=IF(B16$G$7,$G$7,B16) D16=$G$4*C16 E16=B16-C16 F16=$G$5*E16 G16=D16-F16 a.Without overbooking, the problem states that South Central has a mean profit of $2,800 per flight. The overbooking simulation model with a total of 32 reservations (2 overbookings) projects a mean profit of approximately $2925. This is an increase in profit of $125 per flight (4.5%). The overbooking strategy appears worthwhile. The simulation spreadsheet indicates a service level of approximately 99.2% for all passenger demand. This indicates that only 0.8% of the passengers would encounter an overbooking problem. The overbooking strategy up to a total of 32 reservations is recommended. b.The same spreadsheet design can be used to simulate other overbooking strategies including accepting 31, 33 and 34 passenger reservations. In each case, South Central would need to obtain data on the passenger demand probabilities. Changing the passenger demand table and rerunning the simulation model would enable South Central to evaluate the other overbooking alternatives and arrive at the most beneficial overbooking policy. 22.Use the Hammondsport Savings Bank spreadsheet. Changing the interarrival times to a uniform distribution between 0 and 4 is the only change needed for each spreadsheet. The mean time between arrivals is 2 minutes and the mean service time is 2 minutes. On the surface it appears that there is an even balance between the arrivals and the services. However, since both arrivals and services have variability, simulated system performance with 1 ATM will probably be surprisingly poor. Simulation results can be expected to show some waiting times of 30 minutes or more near the end of the simulation period. One ATM is clearly not acceptable. 23.Use the Hammondsport Savings Bank spreadsheet. a.The interarrival times and service times section of the spreadsheet will need to be modified. Assume that the mean interarrival time of 0.75 is placed in cell B4 and that the mean service time of 1 is placed in cell B8. The following cell formulas would be required. CellFormula B16=(1/$B$4)*LN(RAND()) F16=(1/$B$8)*LN(RAND()) The simulation results will vary but most should show an average waiting time in a 2 to 4 minute range. b.The service time mean and standard deviation would be entered in cells B8 and B9 as in the original Hammondsport 1 ATM spreadsheet. Cell F16 would have its original cell formula =NORMINV(RAND(),$B$8,$B$9). Again simulation results will vary. The lower variability of the normal probability distribution should improve the performance of the waiting line by reducing the average waiting time. An average waiting time in the range 1.4 to 2 minutes should be observed for most simulation runs. 24.Use the Hammondsport 2 ATMs spreadsheet on the CD that accompanies the text. The interarrival times section of the spreadsheet will need to be modified. Assume that the mean interarrival time of 4 is placed in cell B4. The following cell formula would be placed in cell B16: =(1/$B$4)*LN(RAND()) a.Both the mean interarrival time and the mean service time should be approximately 4 minutes. b.Simulation results should provide a mean waiting time of approximately .8 minutes (48 seconds). c.Simulation results should predict approximately 150 to 170 customers had to wait. Generally, the percentage should be 30 to 35%.